March 21 - Easy Folks, We've Seen This Before

Will the national media please tone it down! After a weekend where we saw a number of upsets, some of which were fairly historic, the media is claiming we just lived through something akin to a hundred year storm. Whether it is coming from CBS, ESPN or talk radio, the general consensus is Hayley’s comet just flew by and blew a bunch of teams out of the NCAA tourney. Despite having surgery this weekend to repair a herniated mouth, Dick “the Godfather of Crap” Vitale, was on the radio this morning just going crazy about all the parity we are now seeing in men’s college basketball. And Dick’s argument is that we are seeing the playing field leveled because great players are skipping college and going straight to the NBA. As such, the great schools no longer have dominant big men and the smaller schools from the non-power conferences can now compete. This theory is not Vitale’s property. It has become conventional wisdom and its being repeated all over the airwaves this morning. I am not going to rip the theory because I think it has SOME validity, but I think it’s being misapplied to explain a phenomenon that is not all that phenomenal.

Here is my point – eight of the top 16 seeded teams in this year’s tourney were upset this weekend. Of those eight, none were number one seeds. So the question that must be asked is whether this outcome departs or comports with historical precedent. That answer is closer then the latter then the former. If you look back at the last 20 tourneys, usually six to eight seeded teams lose during the opening weekend. Over the last two years, seven teams got knocked off, while the number was only 6 in 2002. But in 2000, the number was nine, just as it was in 1990 and 1986. So what does this say? Well, it says that upsets have been a part of this tourney for a long time. Upsets occurred before many players were leaving early and those same upsets are still happening today. And here is my point. Early entry has definitely leveled the playing field. Heck, I am not going to sit here and argue that Georgia Tech or Syracuse would have lost this weekend had they had Dwight Howard and Carmelo Anthony in their respective lineups. But based on historical data, it seems to me that the playing field was never as tilted as the media suggests. If it had been, we would have seen much fewer upsets throughout the 80s since the top teams would have ridden their superior talent into the regionals. But that didn't happen then just as it doens't happen now. Listen, I will concede that early entry has brought the top teams in the country back to the pack, but this has been going on for a long time. After all, does anyone really think North Carolina would have lost to Villanova in 1985 had Michael Jordan stayed in school? But early entry by itself does not explain why we see so many favored teams lose during the first weekend of the tourney each year. In many instances, they lose because they come out flat, are out-coached or simply choke. That is a fact and it has been one for some time.

The conventional wisdom is the game of the tourney so far was Saturday night's game between Wake and West Virginia. You will get no complaints from me. This was a super game that reminded me a bit of the second round game a couple years back when Arizona and Gonzaga exchanged blows and ended up in a multiple overtime slugfest. Saturday's contest took fifty minutes to settle and was only won after West Virginia’s Mike Gansey made a deal with the devil that allowed him to pour in 19 during the two overtimes. Read that again - 19 in ten minutes! Wake simply couldn’t find the guy and he made them pay time and time again. Wake gave almost as good as it got, but in the end, their patchwork defense let them down. I have been hammering away at Wake’s D all year but no pundit in the country would listen. In fact, I heard Andy Katz say on ESPN this morning say that he picked Wake to win it all because he thought Wake would be more committed to defense in the tourney. This is grounds for dismissal if you ask me. Andy, why would you expect a team that hasn’t played defense in TWO seasons to turn it on in the post-season? What were you watching out there all season? Wake’s defense was so bad on Saturday that I am not sure Tm Duncan could have made a difference. This team was a paper tiger all year and West Virginia found a way too cut it up into shreds. Before I move on, congratulations are in order for Mountaineer coach Jim Beilein. He took over a moribund program two years ago that no one wanted, including hometown boy Bob Huggins, and has turned it into a very solid club. And while Big East power brokers like Jim Boeheim and Jim Calhoun will be sitting at home next weekend, Beilein will in Albuquerque playing for a shot at the Final Four.

In other second round action, Oklahoma really let me down against Utah. I was expecting Oklahoma to suffocate the Utes but this didn’t happen and I blame coach Kelvin Sampson. The Sooners, one of my Final Four picks, made one huge tactical mistake and it ended up costing them the game. They decided early on that they were not going to let Utah center Andrew Bogut beat them. So what did they do? They doubled down on the big Aussie on almost every occasion. Bogut responded by hitting a number of open cutters who were free for layups. Oklahoma was hurt by the fact that their top interior defender, Kevin Bookout, was in early foul trouble, but I thought they should have taken their chances by playing Bogus straight up. Sampson never caught on and Bogut ended up with seven big assists to supplement his 11 boards. After beating the Sooners, the Utes were rewarded with another match-up against their nemesis from Kentucky. This will be the sixth team these two teams have squared off in the tourney since 1993. I hate Kentucky and have been selling them all year, but I think they will make it 6-0 against Utah later this week. Kentucky has little offense, but I think they have more then enough defense to shut down Bogut and his fellow Utes.

Well, it wasn’t black Sunday in Charlotte yesterday as both UNC and Duke found ways to move on. For UNC, it was no sweat at all. The Heels, as they have done all year, simply steamrolled an inferior team. Iowa State hung tough for about twelve minutes, but they had no answer for Marvin Williams or Sean May. Both of Carolina’s big guys were unstoppable and Marvin’s emergence could start paying big dividends for the Heels. There is no way he will supplant Jawad Williams in the starting lineup, but coach Roy Williams will have no choice but to play Marvin more and more if the freshman keeps playing well. North Carolina now moves on to Syracuse where it will face a decimated region. No team in America benefited more from this weekend’s upsets than the Heels who face the possibility of having to only take out Villanova and NC State on the way to St. Louis. That isn’t exactly a Herculian task, although Nova could be a test on Friday. As for Duke, they had a brief scare yesterday against Mississippi State but Daniel Ewing bailed them out on a day when J.J. Reddick looked like anything but the ACC player of the year. You have to give this Duke team credit. They don’t have a lot, but they play good defense and that can buy you a win come this time of year. It certainly did yesterday as the Devils allowed Mississippi to make fewer than one in three shots for the game. Duke now comes up against Michigan State which is a rematch of a game played in December. Duke won that game, but I feel this one will be a toss up. State has very athletic guards that may give Reddick some trouble and State has a physical center that can match-up against Sheldon Williams. I am not sure MSU wins this, but I like the Spartans and the 4.5 points.

What is it with CBS and their obsession with former Duke and ACC basketball players? This weekend the fascination was on display as six of the eight color men doing tourney games played their ball in the jewel of the South. The six-pack includes Jay Bilas (Duke), Jim Spanarkel (Duke), Mike Gminski (Duke), Dan Bonner (Virginia) Len Elmore (Maryland) and Bill Packer (Wake Forest). Meanwhile, a seventh announcer, Bob Wenzel, was an assistant coach at Duke from 75-80, meaning that three people associated with 1978 NCAA finalists are in the CBS stable. That has to be some kind of broadcasting record. To make matters worse, the guy back at the studio - Seth Davis - is a Dukie. And just in case that isn’t enough Duke and ACC flavor, sideline chick Bonnie Bernstein is a Terp. With all this ACC talent amassed at CBS, you got to wonder what Terry Gannon (NC State) is doing over ABC or Brad Daughtery (UNC) is doing up in Bristol. If Big Brad plays his cards right, he could end up replacing the tiring Bill Raftery in a couple years, giving all eight CBS color men a link to the ACC. It is no wonder with all these ACC guys getting checks from CBS that the country believes there is a media bias towards the ACC. I wouldn’t mind it so much if it weren’t for the fact that there are so many Dukies involved. What gives on that front? Is the head of CBS Sports a Duke grad as well? I don’t mind Gminski much, but what the hell is Spanarkel doing on the air? I guess he took the spot of Jon Sundvold (Missouri) at the request of the ACC Commissioner. Here is my request to CBS. If you are going to give us a boat load of ACC guys, let’s have some of the characters from the past. Why not track down Chris Washburn and get him on the air. Or how about Buzz Peterson? He just got fired at Tennessee and I am sure he could have used the work. C’mon, guys, enough with the Devils. Isn’t it enough that we have to see that Coach K American Express commercial every five minutes?

Other then Andy Katz ridiculous comment concerning Wake's defense, the most asinine comment of this morning comes from from Mr. Vitale. I couldn't believe this one. When speaking of NC State coach Herb Sendek, Vitale had the audacity to say all Herb does is win in March. Unless he is talking about Sendek's record in his club's early bird golf championship, I have no idea what Vitale is talking about. After winning two games in this year's tourney, Sendek is a 4-3 in March with exactly one trip to the regionals in four appearances. I will give Kudos to Sendek for pulling this team together after it started 3-7 in conference play, but lets not go overboard. This guy has done little of note in Raleigh and it seems he is constantly on the chopping block. With these two wins over the weekend, Sendek has earned himself another year at NC State, but he is always a 13-15 year away from the unemployment line. And had guard Julius Hodges not come back for his senior year, that probably would have happened this year. I am tired of people making excuses for Herb. Some try to suggest that NC State is a sister of the poor when compared to Duke and UNC and therefore Sendek is entitled to something tantamount to a welfare subsidy. I will concede that NC State is probably a notch below those two, but this is a program that has won big in the past. In case people forget, NC State has won two championships since 1974. That is the same amount as UNC and only one less than Duke. NCSU has all the ingredients necessary to compete - tradition, a new gym, and no academic requirements As such, there is absolutely no reason for the mediocrity that has occured on Herb's watch.

Barry Bonds has big problems and the odds he spends time in a federal courtroom, or perhaps prison, keep getting shorter and shorter. As I wrote last week, Bonds has got to be concerned that his former trainer – Greg Anderson – is about to cut a deal and become a government informant. Anderson is under suspicion for distributing steroids and he could hold the key if the government wants to prove that Bonds lied to the grand jury when he said he didn’t knowingly use steroids. Now, another person close to Bonds is contradicting number 25’s story. Kimberly Bell, Bonds former girlfriend, went before the grand jury on Thursday and testified that Bonds told her in 2000 that he was using steroids. How is that for a little pillow talk? I can just imagine the scene where Barry pushes Bell to the other side of the bed and says, “I’m sorry baby, maybe I can take care of you after I complete this cycle.” In addition to her testimony, Bell also supposedly pulled a Linda Tripp and has ninety minutes of phone conversations between the two on tape. I can’t wait for the Justice Department to leak those tapes. Bonds’ camp is making little of Bell’s story, arguing the chick is lying and is just providing this testimony as a way to promote her upcoming book. That may be true, but the mere fact that the U.S. Attorney hauled Bell in and gave her immunity is an indication that the government now has Bonds in its sights. The BALCO investigation is no longer geared towards nailing Victor Conte and Greg Anderson. Instead, it has become the United States versus Barry Bonds. This is about Barry lying under oath. It is about nailing a guy who obstructed justice in order to protect his reputation. Barry and his camp are downplaying the recent developments in this case, but their public displays of confidence are transparent to this scribe. My guess is the San Francisco Treat is beginning to finally understand that there is a big difference between lying to the public and lying to federal investigators. After all, he can lie to Ray Ratto of the San Francisco Chronicle all he wants and Ray cannot do a thing about it other then press forward with the story. On the other hand, the United States Attorney doesn’t have to sit by and take Barry’s crap. After hearing Bell was hauled in to testify, I am lowering the odds that Bonds will spend time in jail from 7/2 to 3/1.

This Saturday, Roberto Alomar called it quits after his last gasp effort to hang on with the Devil Rays fell apart. My only question is what took so long? Alomar is unquestionably a Hall of Famer, but he has been absolutely putrid since 2001 and this announcement was at least a year overdue. I will start by saying Alomar is unquestionably the best second baseman who played during my lifetime. Sorry Joe Morgan. Sorry Rhino. Neither of you could hold a candle to Alomar. He was a ten time Gold Glover who could hit anywhere in the lineup. He finished his career as a .300 hitter, with 2700 hits and almost 500 steals. He never won an MVP like his aforementioned peers, but he did finish in the top-6 five times. Plus, he was a post-season wrecking ball and if you don’t believe me, just ask anyone on the 1992 A’s. Based on this resume, I have no problem saying Roberto was one of the ten best players of the 90s. That is hardly arguable, but my question for Alomar is what happened to your game after the 2001 season? I have heard of people falling off cliffs, but Roberto fell off something akin to the Kangshung Face on Mt Everest. That is a 5000 footer and Roberto stumbled off it the moment he got traded from Cleveland to the Mets. In the blink of an eye, Roberto became a decrepit old man. As a Met, he couldn’t run or hit, especially as a right-hander. He became a statue at second and his bat speed slowed to about four knots. Here are some numbers to support the case – As an Indian he was a 950 OPS guy and as a Met he became a 700 OPS guy. In 2003, he played for both the Mets and White Sox and he perhaps had the distinction of being the worst player in each respective league in a given season. Mike Lansing is the only other player to have this distinction (2000 Colorado and Boston). Roberto was a phenom, but he should have hung up his cleats a year ago. His resume still warrants a place in Cooperstown, but unfortunately, it is a bit tarnished by his late career swoon. Such a swoon has kept Jim Rice out of the Hall but the same fate does not await Roberto.

Pitchers in Chicago are dropping like flies. First Cub righthanders Mark Prior and Kerry Wood came down with arm problems and now south-sider Mark Buehrle will be sidelined for all of April with a broken bone in his left foot. The White Sox already had several question marks in their rotation, including the health of 73 year old El Duque and 67 year old Jose Contreras, and they can ill afford to lose the reliable Buehrle. Mark may not be an elite starter, but he can give you innings and keep a team in the game. With Buehrle on the sideline, it is possible we will see phenom Brandon McCarthy sooner rather than later. This kid dominated at three levels this past year and hasn't allowed an earned run with the big club this spring. Based on this performance, Manager Ozzie Guillen was quoted this week as saying "McCArthy is the best pitcher we have in camp right now." That may not be saying much given the comps, but it suggests to me that the White Sox may have an insurance policy for Buehrle. You fanstasy guys paying attention?

Last November, in the Southeastern Conference’s big game of the year, the Georgia Bulldogs went down to Auburn and got punked by Tommy Tuberville’s Tigers 24-6. Well, the Georgia Bulldogs got a “bit” of revenge this weekend when its women’s swim team broke Auburn’s three year stranglehold on the NCAA Women’s Swimming Championship. The Tigers, led by sprinter Kara Lynn Joyce, won all five relays on its way to a 609-492 victory over Auburn. Arizona – sans Tuscon resident Amanda Beard – finished in third. Joyce won both sprints for Georgia and her contribution to four winning relays went a long ways toward securing the win for the Bulldogs. It will be interesting to see if Kara, an Olympic finalist from last summer, will be able to close the gap on Australia’s vaunted sprint corps when she competes this summer at the World Championships in Montreal. Joyce was helped along the way by Mary Descenza who won both butterfly races and was also a contributor to the Dogs success in the relays. It was a rather slow meet as no individual American records were broken or even threatened, but that can be partially explained by the fact that Natalie Coughlin holds most of America’s short course records and some of those are out of this world. This will not be the case when the men swim this weekend. My prediction is Florida Gator Ryan Lochte will take down a couple of records but Auburn will avenge its women and take home the team trophy. Afterwards, football coach Tommy Tuberville will declare that the men’s swim team, like his offensive backfield last year, is the best he has seen in fifty years.