Friday, September 21, 2007

The Dollar's Fall is the Jays Gain

It’s hardly news to anyone who follows the market that the U.S. Dollar is having a bad year and a horrible September. In fact, the only entity I can think of that has had a worse month than the greenback is the team that wears green in South Bend. Unfortunately for U.S. travelers and fans of the Fighting Irish, neither entity is likely to have much success in the foreseeable future.

So you might be thinking – why is the Holic writing about foreign currency? Well, here is the answer. It struck me this morning that the dollar’s collapse could have an impact on the American League East for years to come. The reason being – the Canadian dollar this week reached parity with the American Dollar. In other words, one Canadian Dollar is now equal to one American Dollar. The practical effect is Canadians now have as much purchasing power in the States as they do in Canada. This comes after years (and decades) of having a dollar of their currency fetch sixty or seventy cents in the states.

So how does this impact the AL East? Well, if the trend holds and/or extends, it should give the Toronto Blue Jays a significant financial boost that they can now use to raise payroll. For years, the Jays have been at a big disadvantage to U.S. clubs since they collect revenue in Canadian Dollars but have to pay players in U.S. dollars. This is a problem when the exchange rate is so distorted. But now that we have parity, the Jays are no longer forced to pay what amounts to a foreign exchange tax. So, in essence, the Jays will now be able to get a dollar’s work for a dollar’s pay, not a dollar’s work for a dollar and twenty cents in pay.

The impact could be significant as the Jays have put together a solid foundation that could use another twenty million in spending authority to compete with the division’s heavyweights. At the very least, this development should help the Jays better absorb that horrible contract they gave Vernon Wells and ensure that it is not a fiscal carnivore when it begins to mature in 2010. In the meantime, perhaps the Jays could use some of this financial largess to get a short-term closer and lock in some young talent like Alex Rios (even though he is still three years away from free agency).

I am not going to sit here and tell you that I know where the Canadian Dollar will be three years from now but based on where it sits today, the playing field in the American League has become a little bit more level. And if this fed continues down a path towards lower rates, who is to say the dollar won’t fall further and the playing field will soon tilt towards Toronto.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Gagne the Gagger Strikes Again

The question – in the modern history of major league baseball, has any team made a more damaging move at the trade deadline than the Boston Red Sox and their acquisition of Eric Gagne? May I remind you that Gagne has set the bar pretty high as last night was the fourth time he has blown a game since August 1st. In essence, Gagne is the gift that keeps on taking, as he has failed in every tight spot that he was summoned. Is that even possible? Doesn’t the law of pitching averages demand that a pitcher succeed at least once in a while? I guess the answer to that question is no as Gagne has clearly proven that no amount of success is guaranteed. As such, Gagne has single-handedly injected some excitement into the American League East division. Had he been able to close just two of the transgressions at hand, the Sox would remain comfortably ahead – 4.5 games up with ten to play. Listen, I liked the trade at the time it was conceived so I am not going to sit here and argue that it shouldn’t have been made. But I think it’s fair to pronounce it as a catastrophic failure and recognize that there is no reason to compound the damage any further. Unfortunately, I am not sure the front office and Terry Francona share my sentiment. What gives me this sense? Well, after last night’s game, Francona was quoted as saying that he stuck with Gagne because he had to find out whether he could entrust Gagne with meaningful post-season innings. Well, the answer to that question has now been definitely settled but, for some reason, Francona couldn’t bring himself to offer a public eulogy last night or today. Hopefully, his silence was only intended to spare Gagne from further embarrassment. And hopefully, the manager has finally reached a conclusion that was apparent long ago. Let’s hope so because this club can no longer afford to let Gagne gag up another late-inning lead. This just in - Terry Francona says Gagne is still his 8th inning man. God Dammit!!!!!

Monday, September 17, 2007

The Sleeping Bear Has Awakened and . . .He's Pissed!

The Patriots were all piss and vinegar last night. Simply put, they played angry and hell hath no fury like a Patriot scorned. Already one of the league’s most physical, the Pats flexed some muscle and exhibited some speed that San Diego couldn’t match. The pass protection was largely bullet-proof and the pass rush was fierce. Tom Brady was nearly perfect, the running game was effective, and the new additions - Wes Welker, Randy Moss and Adalius Thomas - confirmed that last year’s slight talent deficit with San Diego had been reversed and extended. And if it weren’t enough that the Pats now have the deepest and most talented roster in the NFL, they are now playing with a giant chip on their shoulder. It’s almost as if Eric Mangina, the media and the NFL have awakened a sleeping bear with all this fuss over the Pats taping procedures. Rather than let this bear sleep its way to a 12-4 season, its enemies thought it would be a good idea to start poking it with a stick. Well guys, the bear is now pissed. And the bear is now hungry. And what do you get when you anger the biggest and most talented bear in the forest – well, you just might get a historical season. I realize it’s too early to go crazy, but this team looks like it might be special.

Did anyone watching the Sox game last night think Curt Schilling was going to get that out in the eighth? Anyone? Anyone? Buehler? If I can see it coming from 240 miles away, how come Tito can’t see it from 240 feet?

Can anyone out there tell me whether Jason Varitek leads the universe in stranding runners on base or whether he just leads the American League? The captain’s futility has almost become comical over the past two weeks. On Saturday, the Captain left six or seven guys on base over his first three at bats. Last night, more of the same, although to be fair, he was robbed of a hit in the first. This month, Varitek is hitting .163 with one extra base hit. Less you think this is a near-term phenomena, on the year, he is just 11 for 71 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Clearly, JV is dying out there so how in the world is he still hitting sixth? Its almost like rallies are seeking him out and when they find him, they roll over and die. Given his struggles, I don’t see how Francona can’t drop him down to the eight spot.

I realize the Sox lead by 4.5 games, but folks, don’t get complacent as far as that division goes. The Sox have three this week in Toronto, where it will be Wakefield, Lester and either Tavarez or Buchholz. That isn’t too encouraging given the fact that Wakefield has been knuckling since he tweaked his back, Lester struggled last Wednesday and Buchholz hasn’t thrown to live batters in ten days. Luckily, the Sox miss Halladay and Marcum but AJ Burnett and Jessie Litsch are no bargains. And if that isn’t bad enough, the Sox then head to Tampa where they draw Kazmir on Friday for what seems like the 11th time this year. Meanwhile, the Yanks have six left with the Orioles. I can easily see this lead be two games a week from today.

The Pats next two opponents are Buffalo and Cincinnati – the first got lit up yesterday by the Steelers and the latter surrendered fifty-one to Cleveland. The bet here is New England will put up 70 over the next two weeks, putting them on pace for close to 600 points by year end. That is a bit scary. And game five? Try Cleveland, a team that gave up five TD tosses to Carson Palmer yesterday.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

44-6? See Ya Karla!

44-6? Good God! The friggin Utes stuck it up UCLA's ass yesterday out in Salt Lake and the Holic is now ready to decare that the Karla Dorrell experiment has failed. I've been leaning in this direction for years, but I was persuaded to give Dorrell another shot after he found a way to upset USC last year. So how did Karla follow-up that effort? Well, he orchestrated an embarrassment against Florida State in the "who cares" bowl last December and then this off-season, one of his asistants got arrested for breaking and entering. If that wasn't bad enough, the team opened this year by giving up a third of a mile in offense against Stanford. Then last week, the Bruins narrowly escaped at home against the guys from Big Love, otherwise known as BYU. So how did they chase that ugly shot of tequilla? Well, they went out to SLC and got absolutely smoked by a bad Utah team. This is not acceptable. Listen, I know UCLA isn't a football power but this was a strong program throughout the eighties and it has shown glimmers since I graduated in 1991, most notably with JJ Stokes in 1994 and very good squads in 97 and 98. Under no circumstances is it acceptable to lose to Utah and certainly not by 38 points. So, where does this loss rank in UCLA futility lore? Well, I might not put this up as the worst UCLA loss in memory, but its up there with the debacle against Arizona two years ago (Bruins were 9-0 at the time) and that loss to Miami back in 1998 when Edgerrin James mauled the Bruins while they were opening up the national championship game invite.

So the question now is what is the fate of Karla Dorrell? Well, this alum is ready to pull the trigger. Listen, I know the current quarterback - Ben Olson - is terrible, but whose fault is that? After all, Karla brought this kid in after he had been away on a two-year mission. Thankfully, a better option - Pat Cowan - is almost ready to come back from a leg injury, but I am not sure it will make much difference. Why so? Well, the defense, which was supposed to be amongst the best ever fielded at UCLA, has been a big disappointment and the team has shown no ability to run the ball. Oddly enough, that recipe is the same used to make a shit sandwhich. I think the morale to this story is Dorrell has simply not been able to rid UCLA of the hangover left behind by Bob Toledo. For those of you who might need a refresher, here is Karla's resume

1-3 against Southern California, the one being a miracle of sorts
No Pac-10 championships
No BCS bowl games1-10 on the road against teams with a winning record
Worse winning percentage than Bob Toledo, who was fired
3-11 against ranked teamsOnly 6 conference wins against teams over .500
19-14 in the Pac-108-17 against teams with a winning record
11 losses to unranked teams.
A meltdown in the 60th minute at South Bend
Embarrassing losses to Wyoming, Fresno State, Arizona, and now Utah
Former players, such as Ricky Manning and Mo Drew, have hardly been model citizens.

So is it time to goose Dorrell? You betcha. This is year five and it was supposed to be the year that the Bruins were super-competitive. This was the year that the Bruins were supposed to fly through the conference and give USC a scare in the Coliseum. Sorry, ain't going to happen. Not by a long shot. Assuming Cowan comes back and plays decently, this looks like another 7-5 (or worse) team to me. That doesn't cut it and someone will have to be held accountable. That someone is Karla Dorrell. Now someone text'd me yesterday and claimed that Dorrell was the black Steve Lavin. My first thought . . . . that might not be fair to Steve Lavin. And my second thought . . I couldn't care less that Karla is black. If he could win games, I wouldn't care if his name was Kalari and he was a card-carrying member of Al Qaeda. But since the race card is out there (and it always is), I will use it to draw a little historical perspective to this debate. A ways back, UCLA had an African-American coach who also happened to lose a game to Utah. His name was Larry Farmer and he got dumped a year after losing to Utah in the second round of the 1983 NCAA tourney. In that instance, the administration waited a year. This go around, I hope they are a bit more expeditious.

Jacobo the Navajo, plus OJ, Belichick and Movies

Ok, let’s make this clear, Jacoby Ellsbury is no longer a “when” player. He is a “now” guy and it’s time for the Red Sox to accept this fact. After this past week, the debate has now shifted from whether young Jacoby will be on the post-season roster to which regular Jacoby will displace from the post-season starting lineup. I know this kid is wet behind the ears and has a total of just sixty-five major league at bats, but Jacobo has to play. He is no longer a luxury that can be counted on to pinch-run and maybe grab some late-inning leather. No, not anymore. That won’t do for Jacabo the Navajo. Listen, this is a team that has seen its World Series formula unravel a bit in recent weeks as its Japanese imports have been recalled, its catcher has developed a phobia to hitting with runners on base and its Greek God of Walks has morphed into a deity who now specializes in whiffs and bad facial expressions. So if the starting pitching is not what it was supposed to be and the bullpen's Toyota is in the shop, wouldn’t it make sense to do whatever it takes to gun the offense? Well, inserting Ellsbury into the lineup is a start. I don’t care where he plays. You want to stick him in right and bench the crime-solver, Nancy Drew? That is fine by me although I think at this point, it makes more sense to keep young Jacabo on the reservation and let him play for Coco in center. As much as I would love to have Coco’s golden glove in center, it’s pretty clear his offense is tame against lefties and lame against righties (It’s actually passable against both but passable doesn't cut it in October). So that’s my answer. Yes, my final answer. Jacobo is the Red Sox new center fielder. Thanks Coco, your work was appreciated and if the Sox can somehow win this thing, I promise they will fly you in from Minnesota or Atlanta for next year’s ring ceremony. In the meantime, good luck Jacabo. You’re now the Sox secret weapon against the Indians. The Sox still have some cowboy holdovers from 2004 but now they have an honest-to-goodness injun to use against the Tribe.

Some more thoughts . . .


So what was OJ doing out in Vegas . . . . . trying out for an open spot on Danny Ocean's crew? Is the Juice going to run for a couple touchdowns in Oceans 14? So the story goes like this: the Juice broke into a hotel room to retrieve some crap that he says was stolen from him. He says he took the matter into his own hands because: "the police, since my trouble, have not worked out for me." Really? Well, there is a shocker. It guess that just goes to prove the old adage that police are always screwing over the double murderers. The other thing I found interesting about this story is that OJ was in Vegas to attend a freind's wedding. Here is my question - Who the fuck invites OJ to his or her wedding? Can you imgaine showing up for a wedding and you're seated at the killer's table? Better yet, imagine being a single woman at that party or the server who is working OJ's table. I'll tell you one thing, if I am at the wedding, I am keeping my mouth shut until the kitchen confirms that all the steak knives have been collected.

Best thing to happen at Fenway yesterday . . . Josh Beckett clearly nails Jason Giambi with a retaliatory pitch and Jason takes it like a man. Story over! Folks, this is how baseball was meant to be played Guys get hit and guys get hit in retaliation. It’s all part of the game and it doesn’t deserve much, if any, discussion. It absolutely drives the Holic crazy to hear sports “fans” endlessly discuss beanings. The whining and complaining and hand-wringing is, at best, tiresome, and at worst, embarrassing. In fact, I almost think that by definition, one isn’t a “fan” if he spends more then two minutes a year discussing hit batters. I’ll give out one exception to those who spent up to five minutes discussing Clemens and Piazza but that is the only latitude I will grant. To those of you who are still whining about Pedro sending Jeter to the hospital, well, have fun watching The View and Grey’s Anatomy.

Boy did WFAN’s Mike Francesca get stuffed by Chris Simms on this morning’s NFL pre-game show. For those who haven’t been listening, Mikey has been raising a big stink about this Bill Belichick taping incident. His take: why would the Pats “go to such great lengths to get this info” if it didn’t have great value. Well, Chris stopped this offensive right in its tracks this morning when he claimed to have spoken to three head coaches on the matter, including Herman Edwards, and each said that they couldn’t imagine that the tapes had any value whatsoever. Mikey made a weak attempt to protest, but his idol was pretty skeptical. It will be interesting to see where Mikey goes from here now that he has been slapped in the face. He usually just parrots what Phil has to say but what happens when such regurgitation is at odds with his previous position? Does he eat the crow before him (might as well, he eats everything else) or does he stay the course and pander to the shrill alarmists? Strikes me that Francesca should have done a little digging and a little thinking before he wandered out to the end of the plank.

[Sidebar to Mikey’s comment – what great lengths did the Pats go? They hired a cameraman and said cameraman was standing in plain view for everyone to see. Since when does that qualify as a great length? No, great lengths would have been if the Pats had hired somebody in the blimp to get the shot. Or better yet, pay someone to go “mission impossible” and break into the opposing team’s halftime to get the second half adjustments.]

Final word, for now, on the Belicheat incident. Has Bill Belichick ever raped Gary Myers of the Daily News? Did he taunt Myers in grade school? Maybe steal his milk money? If not, what justifies Gary’s triple-barrel anti-Pat barrage? Gary has always been myopically obsessed with the Pats but his vigor and vitriol was turned up several notches this week as he covered this story. First, Gary went B-A-N-A-N-A-S when the news first broke. Then, proving he isn't just a hollowback girl, GM protested vigorously when Belichick wasn’t suspended, de-clawed and sentenced to prison. Now he is claiming that Tom Brady has been the big beneficiary in this whole sordid tale, suggesting that his drive to beat the Panthers in Super Bowl 38 was aided by stealth and trickery. Just a hunch, but I am confident that Gary will have a “gotcha” story this week if the Pats lose tonight and “it doesn’t matter” story if the Pats win. Needless to say, Gary’s Sunday argument has more holes than the Giants defense but I will skip the details as I have already covered some of this material in an earlier post. That being said, I will say that I believe Gary is an unethical columnist and I am convinced, REPEAT CONVINCED, that he manufactures quotes to give his storiess credibility. It is pretty transparent and I am surprised it continues to squeak by the editors at the Daily News. Gary, if you are listening, lets make this clear. This scribe thinks you FABRICATE primary source material to give your stories color and depth. I may not have enough evidence to indict or convict, but I think the factual record strongly suggests that you have cheated your profession.

Best comment of the past week – Dottie Pepper, while commenting for the Golf Channel on the Solheim Cup, called the Americans, perhaps accidentaly, a bunch of “chokin freakin dogs.” In the vanilla world of golf commentary, Dottie’s unvarnished rip of the American team was tantamount to acing a par four. Listen, Johnny Miller will occasionally step up with some fair and biting criticism of his fraternity but even Johnny stops short of where Dottie went. Dottie is basically Johnny Miller on HGH. Not only did she use golf’s four letter word – choke – but she added emphasis with a bastardized bit of profanity. This is worthy of a profile in broadcasting courage as far as the Holic is concerned. Hey, I am not a huge fan of having women comment on male sports but if Dottie is going to hit us with zingers like this, it’s time she got a higher profile gig as a regular PGA tour commentator, preferably on CBS. I'm sure she'll be available as her days at the Golf Channel are surely numbered.

The Holic can’t wait for this new Ken Burns documentary on World War II, which debuts on September 23 and will air over seven weeks. Burns is the freakin Mozart of his art and this epic looks like it might be his finest work to date. If you don’t believe me – check out the 25 minute preview on the PBS website.

Some quick movie reviews . .

Superbad . . . . ok, the fat kid from Knocked Up can’t act to save anyone’s life and he becomes an irritant, but the movie works because the other two dorks are excellent. The girls are cute, which is a bit disturbing for a 38 year-old like myself to mention, and Seth Rogin/Partner are terrific as a pair of young cops who take one of the dorks (McLovin) on a memorable ride-along. The writing-directing pair of Seth Rogin and Judd Apatow is having an excellent year and I now have them ranked above both Chris Guest/Harry Shearer and the Farrelly’s on my list of top comedy development teams.

3:10 to Yuma . . . excellent Western with a healthy dose of great shots and a fine performance from Christian Bale. The storyline is a bit weak and overly-convenient, but I think it makes it to the finish line in one piece.

No End in Sight . . . . . there is some great footage of Iraq and the documentary does include some interviews which help illustrate why the American occupation got off to such a rocky start. That being said, the documentary is a bit one-sided as the producers were unable to get many major players to defend that first year of the occupation. As a result, the film comes off being more partisan than objective. Much of that criticism is probably deserved but it would have been much more effective if the producers had been able to get Paul Bremer or Don Rumsfeld or Richard Meyers to either defend or explain their decisions. Instead, the film relies on some mid-level types for the contra-argument and, as a result, it lacks depth and stature.