Wednesday, March 22, 2006

March 22 - Vinatieri Vacates While Nation Vents

The story that has Patriot Nation talking this morning involves the departure of kicker Adam Vinatieri to the Indianapolis Colts. Lest you haven’t been paying attention, the Pats have had a very peculiar (some would say horrific) off-season where Super Bowl stalwarts Willie McGinest, David Givens, and Vinatieri were respectively jettisoned, abandoned, and discarded. The McGinest move was a bit tough to swallow since this is a guy who may someday have his face on Mt. Patsmore. Nonetheless, Willie had aged and therefore his release could be justified to all but the most sentimental. In the case of Givens, the Pats faced an entirely different set of facts. On one hand, the former seventh round pick had morphed into a very capable and clutch NFL receiver. But on the other hand, some in the league were overly-enamored with Givens and willing to pay him as if he had made a couple trips to Honolulu in recent years. While difficult to swallow, his departure could be justified under the auspices of fiscal prudence. But the case for Vinatieri’s departure seems more elusive. Here was a guy who has been absolute nails for this organization. Everyone knows about the snow game and the two Super Bowl clinchers, but there was more on AV’s resume. How bout the time in the 2003 playoffs when he nailed a super-clutch forty-yarder in arctic conditions against Tennessee? People forget that one but it was every bit as important as the one he nailed three weeks later in Houston. This guy’s importance to the Pats SB Trifecta cannot be minimized. He was Doctor Death in the eyes of opponents. The only difference between AV and Mariano Rivera is when V runs on the field, the loudspeakers don’t play Metalica

So what went wrong? Why was Vinatieri allowed to seek out greener pastures? Well, it seems like it all came down to money. The Pats are $20 Million under the cap and could have easily afforded to either franchise him or lock him up for three years. They chose to do neither and I believe they have made a mistake, and perhaps a very material one. Listen, AV has shown some wear of late. He is a bit short off the tee and there was that big miss in Denver to close out the season. I understand all of that but this is not a guy who was going to break the bank and the alternatives don’t seem all that appealing given the potential savings. After all, is two million a lot to spend for a hammer that can close out games, particularly in January? If you are undecided, why don’t you ask Herm Edwards or Tony Dungy that question since both were recently eliminated in playoff games decided by missed kicks. I hate to say this, but the Pats now run the risk of becoming the 1999 Red Sox where Rod Beck was asked to nail down games. Sorry guys, it didn’t work then and I am concerned that it won’t work for the Pats.

With Vinatieri now gone, there are many within Patriot nation whose faith in the Belichek regime has been shaken. “In Bill We Trust” has been replaced in some circles by “Is this Guy Losing It?” I think the answer may be somewhere in between. Listen, BB is obviously a sage, but I think his unwavering insistence on getting a market discount has come back to haunt the organization. While some have taken less money to stay (Vrabel, Bruschi, Brady), it seems that this regime’s conservative fiscal policy has rubbed some the wrong way. Moreover, it also appears to have scarred off some free agents who are not fond of laying money on the table. It strikes me that BB is a bit like a highly disciplined value investor (think Buffet), in that he has an idea in his mind of what fair value is and there is now way he is ever going to pay above that price. Well, you know what sometimes happens to investors like that – the market never hits their bid and they miss great opportunities by a matter of pennies. Discipline is one thing, but at some points in time, this organization must come to grips with the fact that it has to pay market prices once in a while. The Globe’s Mike Reiss echoed my thoughts this morning when he said, “I think there comes a point where you need a "statement" type of contract that shows you're not afraid to take care of deserving players and the Patriots could have done that with Vinatieri, a 10-year veteran who has made some of the most clutch kicks in team history.” It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out at Gillette. The Pats core is basically intact, a handful of key injuries have healed, the team still has a bunch of financial flexibility and a deep draft lies ahead. That being said, this is a club that has a few more holes today then it did when it walked off the field in Jacksonville thirteen months ago.

Quick Hits:

I gave Albany little shot at beating Connecticut last Friday, but for a brief moment there, I thought the Danes might have a little mojo working in their favor. Why the inclination? Well, on the day that former DePaul coach Ray Meyer passed, what would be more appropriate then having a number one seed lose in the NCAA tourney. Lest you have forgotten, Meyer once lost three consecutive opening round games in the NCAA tourney as a number one seed. The big difference is that when Meyer lost, the tourney was smaller and therefore DePaul lost its games after enjoying a first round bye. Regardless of this technicality, I will always remember Meyer for those three loses to UCLA, St. Joes and Boston College. In particular, that loss to St. Joes was an absolute stunner, as Jim Lynam’s Hawks knocked out a team with both Mark Aguirre and Terry Cummings. If a team like that could lose to a little school from Philly, who’s to say this UCONN team couldn’t have lost last Friday to Albany.

I find this story concerning Steve Alford interesting for two reasons. First, what did this guy do to turn off Indiana? 2) Why would he consider leaving Iowa for Missouri – that strikes me as a lateral (at best). With Alford out of the picture, who are the two guys under consideration for the job in Bloomington? Is Randy Whitman involved? Zeke? Beilein? This is a huge job and I am a bit surprised that the search has been kept under wraps and is already in the bottom of the seventh. .

Anyone notice that during the opening round of the tourney, we had the Bruins playing the Bruins and the Wildcats taking on the Wildcats? This week, we got a Huskies going up against the Huskies. Somebody needs to call the guys at Elias to see what the tourney record is for nickname on nickname crime.

Eighth and Ocean was very solid last night as one of the twins found out that here acne was ruining her modeling career. After being scolded for showing up at a casting for models with top-shelf complexions, the blotchey Sabrina absolutely broke down in an MTV instant classic.

We got a new Lost on tonight – curious to see if Fox reciprocates and someone from 24 shows up on the island tonight. Is it possible that President Palmer shows up as Walt’s real father? Nine Meyers jumps over from the Others and starts up with Sayid?

Do these numbers sound right – there is a AP story out of Iraq this morning chronicling an insurgent attack on a police station. Sixty gunmen attacked the station, the U.S. military responded and a two-hour firefight ensued. At the conclusion, four policemen were dead, five were wounded, fifty gunmen were captured but none of the insurgents were listed as killed or wounded. These numbers aren’t even remotely credible. Do they honestly expect me to believe that these guys fought each other for two hours, no insurgents were injured and then fifty of them gave up? What is this – paintball? Did we capture their flag? I realize that some stories coming out of Iraq are poorly reported, but much of blame lies at the feet of Iraqi and U.S. officials who can’t be relied upon to tell anything close to the truth.


Bronson Arroyo had a terrific exit interview with the Boston press corps the other day and I actually found myself a bit sad after re-reading the excerpts. In today’s day and age, where guys are bolting “disrespectful” organizations over a few million dollars, Arroyo truly wanted to stay in Boston and proved it by recently signing a below-market contract. So how did Boston repay Bronson? Well, Theo Epstein turned around and exiled his band-mate to red state hell. That is a bit like Van Halen trading David Lee Roth to a Christian rock band in Topeka, right after Roth turned down a gig to front Motley Crue. Despite the banishment, Bronson took the high-road on the way out of town and made no mention of being mistreated or disrespected by management. Clearly, Bronson didn’t read the same “How to Burn Bridges While Leaving Boston” book that guys like Johnny and Nomar have committed to memory. Both Bronson and D Lowe often drove me crazy when they were on the mound for the Sox, but each seemed like a good guy and each left Boston as professional. The same can’t be said for those other two clowns.

Staying with Arroyo, here is a money quote from an idiot who feels sorry for his old teammate. Likening Arroyo’s situation to his own, Johnny Damon said “I bought a house that I could not afford at the time in Boston because they said ‘We’re going to keep you. We’ll get something done real soon.” This supposed conversation occurred after the 2004 World Series, which was three years into Damon’s four-year/32M dollar contract. How can a guy who had just earned $24M, claim to have been hoodwinked into buying a house he couldn’t afford? What kind of house did he buy – the Kennedy’s Cape Compound? If I had a nickel for every idiotic thing this guy has said over the past year, I could go to the movies, snatch up a jumbo combo and still have money to cover the cab home.

Is it me or does it seem to be a stretch to guarantee $18.5 million for a guy who has registered just 21.5 sacks in five NFL seasons. I know the Hawks felt like a jilted lover and needed to go shopping after losing Steve Hutchison, but did they have to turn around that spend all that money on Julian Peterson? I know Peterson is a highly regarded player who has cover skills, but isn’t there a rule in the NFL that only linebackers who can rush the passer make big money? In Seattle’s defense, having Peterson play alongside Lofa Tatupu gives the Hawks an awful lot of speed in their second line of defense. They may be small, but those two are quick. With Peterson getting 18.5, what is Levar Arrington going to get? Better yet – what the hell is Richard Seymour going to pull out of the Pats? Now I know why the Pats have been quiet this off-season – they will have to fork over Brady money to extend Seymour. Ouch.

I may be in the minority here, but I don’t think the Jets got enough for John Abraham. It wasn’t exactly a seller’s market, but to only get the 29th pick for Abraham seems a bit lite. Hey, Abraham has trouble staying healthy and he is a bit of a pussy, but he can rush the passer. You don’t often find guys at 29 who can do that.

I am getting real tired of all these guys, particularly Fat Ass at WFAN, who pray at the altar of Alfonso Soriano. Sorry guys – his numbers are way exaggerated and here are some examples:

2004 2005
Road BA .244 .224
Road Slugging .444 .374
Road OPS .735 .639
BA Bases Empty .265 .292
BA RISP .253 .235
BA RISP/2Outs .210 .181

The moral to the story is you got a real selfish guy whose numbers were hugely inflated at Ameriquest and a guy who does little damage with runners on base. How can you pay $10 million dollars to a recalcitrant who hits under .200 in the money spot? Oh, for those of you who think this guy is Mr. October, here is the government’s case against: Soriano is a .233 post-season hitter with just four bombs and 14 runs scored in 154 plate appearances. The government rests.

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

March 21 - Sheff Being Sheff?

With Terrell Owens temporarily satisfied down in Dallas, the current title of “most insufferable and selfish clown” in sports probably goes to a surly slugger named Gary Sheffield. This guy just won’t shut up. Just two weeks ago, Sheff unleashed a patented tirade when it became apparent that the Yanks had no interest in picking up his bloated 2007 option prior to the beginning of the season. It seems the Yanks would like to see just a little bit more from Gump before they pay him thirteen million dollars to play a season from now. Sheff was eventually mollified by some kind and constructive words from his third grade teacher – Brian Cashman - but the afterglow wore off this weekend when Gump complained that he never felt comfortable in New York because he is constantly being asked to prove himself. Poor Gary. First he self-negotiates a contract that is worth ten percent less then he was led to believe and then he is told that he actually may have to put in three solid years in order to get paid for a fourth. This guy just can’t catch a break.

Somebody with some sense and body armor has to pull this guy over and explain to him that $13 million dollar options don’t get routinely rubber-stamped for old guys whose numbers have declined the past two years. And in this case, the numbers don’t lie. In 2003, Sheff, having been roofed by Barry during the off-season before, had a monster year – hitting .330, with 39 bombs and an OPS (on base percentage plus slugging) over .1000. In 2004, the average came in 40 points, while his OPS sank by a dollar. Yankee apologists explained the correction by arguing all summer that Sheff was bothered by a shoulder problem, but that shoulder problem was supposedly fixed after the 2004 season and yet Sheff’s numbers came in once again during 2005. Sure, he still jacked 34 bombs in over 580 at bats, but he scored fewer runs, had fewer extras and his OPS fell under .900. The last time Sheff’s OPS was this low, he was playing in the spacious confines of Florida and Monica L was trying out presidential cigars. So that brings us to 2006. The bet here is Gary knows he is slowing and he is watching 2003 fade fast in the rearview window. The drugs that comforted his quads and shoulder are now outlawed and his lightening-quick hands are not quite as quick as they once were. On top of that, Gump now knows his option is in play and he is starting to perhaps press just a bit. After all, Sheff is just 2-24 this spring and it seems plausible that this insecure clown is just a bit concerned that he isn’t going to make it to the finish line where $13 million awaits. Instead, he may be re-routed to a separate line where the banner reads: WELCOME GUMP - how does 2/19M (4 deferred) with a team option for 2009 sound? Some Yankee locals completely dismiss such talk by plagiarizing Boston-speak and stressing Sheff is just being Sheff. When it comes time to play ball, this camp argues Sheff will hit. He always has and he always will, so the story goes. Well, I for one don’t think the story reads so well with the addendum on steroids and the new chapter on life after 37. I am still a couple of chapters from the end, but the story I am reading doesn’t feel like it’s going to have a warm and cuddly ending.

Some quick hits:

It must be that time of year – once again, the media can’t help itself from claiming that the upsets in this year’s NCAA tourney are somehow historically anomalous. Sorry guys – you are wrong. It’s all in the numbers. This year, we lost only six seeded teams in the opening two rounds, none of which were top seeds. As such, this was actually a fairly lite year as far as upsets go. If you don’t believe me, check your facts. Over the past twenty or so tourneys, we generally lose between six and eight seeds during the opening weekend. It was seven in 03 and 04, while it was eight last year. If you want carnage, go back to 2000 when nine seeds went down before the regionals. The same held true in 1990 and 1986. So lets save all the talk of how the tourney has changed so much over the years. Upsets have always been a part of this party. Sure, some new trends have seemingly increased parity in the game, but the tourney is still its same old self. .

Kudos to the Japanese for winning the WBC! It was probably the biggest win for Japanese baseball since those 13 year-olds beat the Bears in a sandlot at the end of BNB III. All you naysayers were wrong – this tourney had plenty of juice and it is probably here to stay. I actually am a bit disappointed the Cubans didn’t win. Such a win would have triggered an earthquake in South Florida and nothing pleases me more then seeing those jerkoffs foam at the mouth. But I am wondering – with the score 10-6 in the ninth, how come the Cubans didn’t let the Beard pinch hit. Talk about a big moment that people would be discussing around the water cooler this morning. “You see Castro lean out and slap that two-strike change to left? I gotta hand it to that old son-of-a-bitch, he is one tough out!”

Can BH Kim get anyone out in the ninth inning? Anyone at all? First it was the Yankees in 2001. Then it was the rest of major league baseball and now the Japanese. Who’s next? The North Koreans in a friendly game in the DMZ? I can hear it now: “here’s the pitch from Kim. Roh drills a long fly ball to left, back, back, its in the mine field, Home Run North Korea and with that the North Koreans have won the right to join the world’s nuclear club.” With his stellar track record, I wouldn’t let Kim close out the Pizza Hut celebrity slow pitch game, let alone a hardball game that meant something.

What is the NCAA doing hosting a Women’s Basketball Regional in Bridgeport Connecticut? Was the armory in Fall River taken next weekend? How bout the VFW Hall in Scranton? Am I missing something here? Perhaps there is a big lesbian community in Bridgeport that I don’t know about? If not, how did BP steal this show away from beautiful Hartford?

We have had a great little run in 24 the past few weeks. Lot of deaths at CTU, including two of my personal favorites, Tony Almeida and Edgar Stiles, but the show has pressed on like an aging champion not quite ready to hang them up. Listen, this show jumped the shark at least a season ago, but I am still there every Monday night. I do like the fact that Desmond from Lost made an appearance last night. So that’s where he ran off to – the German intelligence service. He has got to be furious at the move Jack pulled. Can you even program a memory chip to self-destruct? Is that a new Toshiba offering? Come to think of it, I have so much to say on this episode of 24 that I may bring back my Nina Meyers blog.

Staying on TV for a minute – check out the new MTV show 8th and Ocean (Tuesday’s at 10:30). If you like Laguna Beach, you’ll love Ocho and Playa. The recipe – how models struggle with their beauty in a shared apartment down in South Beach. With those ingredients, it’s a slam-dunk. Last week, we had one of the girls attend a meeting hosted by an organization called, Models for God. I think tonight we get the episode where one gal is told that her acne may get in the way of a successful career in front of the camera. This could go directly into the MTV Hall of Fame. Kudos to creator Liz Gateley for coming up with another blockbuster that satisfies my thirst to re-live my early twenties.

Worst thing about the NCAA Tourney: No Survivor for three weeks. We’re at the merge folks – its time to start paying attention. My early money is on Sally, although Terry will be tough to take out. For my long shot, I’ll go with Shane. He’s a good athelete who seems to be in deep trouble but I can see him flipping the game. And he’s a certifiable psycho and its about time one of those gets into the winners circle.

I like this preview for the new Fox show – Unanimous. People stuck down in a bunker and they can’t get out until they all agree to give one person a bounty of loot. This has potential.

How can the Miami Dolphins be in on every major free agent on the market? The last time I checked, the Dolphins had minimal cap room to play with, yet everywhere I look, the fish are pursuing high-end free agents. Julian Peterson, Kerry Collins, Levar Arrington, Ty Law – the beat goes on. How is this possible, particularly after the Fish have already spent a considerable amount of money this off-season? Is it possible that the Fish have become the AFC version of the Washington Redskins? Perhaps the Dolphins, buoyed by their strong finish, think their future is now and its time to go for it. Well, if that is the case, why did the Dolphins trade for a QB who may not be ready in 2006? I guess this is what happens when you hire a GM whose resume is highlighted by a stint with the Saints and a stint in Bristol where he was often asked to share his thoughts on fantasy football. I wonder if Saban ever calls up his friend in New England and asks: “how do I get one of those Scott Pioli’s?”

It went un-reported, but Bode Miller actually won the final Super-G of the World Cup season last Friday. This isn’t exactly timely, but this scribe thinks Bode was unfairly buried at the Olympics by a media corps that has no idea what the sport of skiing is all about. Is Bode a clown? YES! Does he sometimes say idiotic things? ABSOLUTELY! Is he a disgrace and a choke artist? No way! First of all, Miller has been skiing on a bad knee all year. Secondly, this is a guy who won the biggest title in ALL of skiing in 2005 – the FIS World Cup Combined. That is the top of the sport. PERIOD. The Olympics is big, but this guy had already won the Super Bowl. Ask any skier what they would prefer and 98 out of 100 will say the WC Combined over an Olympic gold. Sure, Miller had a disappointing Olympics, but that doesn’t mask the fact that he has enjoyed incredible success in his sport. Sorry to disappoint, but this guy is the most accomplished skier in U.S. History, and that was before this ski season kicked off last November in Lake Louise. Like Soccer, Tennis and Road Cycling, the biggest win in Skiing does not come at the Olympics but the press corps lost track of that fact when it conflicted with their anti-Miller headlines. It is too bad because as Miller showed last Friday, he is still at the top of his sport, even on one bad knee.

Whatever happened to Donyell Marshall? I was checking out some stats the other day and stumbled upon these: In 26 MPG, Donyell is averaging just nine points a game on THIRTY-EIGHT percent shooting. When did Donyell get his advanced degree in masonry? 38%? If he finishes cold, Marshall could end the season with a lower number then the President. And if that number doesn’t shock you, try this one on for size. This month, Donyell is averaging under five a game while playing 20 mpg’s. Could this guy still start for his alma matter? Is it possible that fellow Husky Cliff Robinson might outlast Marshall in the NBA?

Anyone notice that Darko has a pulse down in Orlando. I wouldn’t go crazy just yet, but DM has blocked 16 shots in his last four games for the Magic. This just may turn out to be a good deal for the magic.

The Holic is praying that Frank Robinson does something dramatic to punish Alfonso Soriano - the latest in a series of ass-clowns exported from Texas to Washington D.C. Soriano, this week, lived up to his selfish word when he refused to take up position in left field. It seems the kid who embarrasses himself everyday at second is just a bit concerned that his play in left will end up looking like a SNL skit gone awry. I haven’t seen balls this big since I caught a Peter North film last month. Anyways, regardless of what he might say about embarrassing himself, Soriano won’t budge because he doesn’t want to hit free agency next year as an outfielder where his over-hyped offensive skills might be less appreciated and less rewarded. In other words, he thinks his payday will come as a two-bagger and hell if he is going to move for anyone. That’s the spirit Alfie. Way to highlight your arrogance and stellar character on the eve of free agency. Who in the Capitol is advising this guy – somebody from the Vice President’s Office?

In light of Soriano’s intransigence, Robinson is considering “disqualifying” him, meaning he won’t get paid and he won’t accrue MLB service time. Such a designation would keep Soriano from becoming a free agent next year and perhaps make him the early favorite to win the 2008 Comeback Player of the Year Award. Now a DQ is unlikely to come to fruition, but with the stubborn Robinson, anything is possible, and I, for one, am rooting for the Robby-Style DQ. As for Soriano, I am not so sure he will get his payday as either an outfielder or second baseman, AS is a guy who was completely exposed in the 2003 ALCS and hasn’t been the same since. Check it out – in 2004, his OPS was just .735 away from the driving range in Arlington. Last year, his road OPS was a Belhorn-esque .640. This is a guy who slugged nearly 300 points higher at his comfy home then on the road. Guys, he is a creature of home cooking. You put him in a normal park, let alone a cavern like RFK, and he hits .260 and slugs .450. Not bad, but nothing close to the numbers he produced before pitchers found out he will chase anything in the park – except lazy fly balls hit to him out in left field.

Here were my initial thoughts on the trade yesterday that brought the Sox Wily Mo Pena for Bronson Arroyo: “This Arroyo trade is Asinine! Hey BA ain’t much, but he’ll give you innings and a load of quality starts. Last year, I thought I was being generous when I called Willie Mo the ‘worst prospect in baseball.’ Here is the money stat – Pena’s OPS outside of Cincy last year was .707. For some reason, it was also very low at night, which could be a problem in this era where most games tend to start after the sun goes down. So basically the Sox traded a guy who will give you 200 innings and 20 quality starts for a guy who struck out 116 times in 331 plate appearances, can’t hit on the road or after 7:30 P.M. You talk about a specialty player, Pena was brought in to face lefties on Patriots Day and Sunday’s – provided Boston isn’t playing in the ESPN night game.” Well, eighteen hours later, I have tempered my disgust as it now occurs to me that this guy does hit lefties and with Beddard, Kazmir, Lilly, Johnson, Chacin, and Ryan in the East, a lefty killer is not such a bad thing. Moreover, the guy supposedly had a nice winter and its possible that with some more seasoning, Wily Mo could become a player and cheap insurance in the event that Trot Nixon breaks down again or splits after the season. Nonetheless, I still believe the Sox erred by trading Arroyo when they did. This guy is a valuable chip that will become more valuable the moment another contender losses a starting pitcher. Had the Sox waited a few weeks, I believe Arroyo could have fetched more. And with it now looking like Mike Lowell will be a debacle at third, it strikes me that the Sox will need a right-handed third or first baseman in the not so distant future. As such, I would have held on to Arroyo until Lowell had been diagnosed and the market for pitching heated up.

It dawned on me yesterday that the New York Knicks this summer will probably have to write out a giant check to make this Larry Brown-Starbury problem go away. It has gotten to the point where one recalcitrant must go and the only way out, as I see it, is through a buyout. So what’s the damage? Well, in Starbury’s case, the Knicks are on the hook for $60 million with little chance for negotiation. In Brown’s case, they owe $40 million, but I am sure that is negotiable since even Brown would have trouble accepting such a large payout for just one year of work. Some might argue there is a third option – trading Starbury – but I don’t see that as remotely credible. The reason: there is not a team in the league that has enough bad contracts on hand to exchange with the Knicks. The problem here is Marbury’s contract is just horrific, even by NBA standards. Believe me – I checked. Kenyon Martin – not even close. Rahim – sorry guys, he no longer makes big money. Brian Grant – in the same ballpark, but his contract is expiring so the Lakers aren’t going to waste that asset on Stephon. I guess the Knicks could do something with Golden State for Baron Davis and Adonal Foyle, or with Philly for Allen Iverson, but why would either want the now disgraced Starbury? And beyond these deals, there really aren’t a whole lot of other options. Now, I am sure Larry Brown would be receptive to a Iverson deal, but could Philly GM Billy King keep his job if he made that trade? I think he would love to dump Iverson, but getting Marbury in return does little to improve his stock. Simply put, it is a shit show at the Garden and the only way out, as I see it, is via a certified check to one of the two stooges.