Tuesday, July 12, 2005

July 12 - Grading out the National League

Mid Season Grades – National League

MVP – Derrick Lee – His late injury almost cost him this award but he recovered by clubbing a couple of bombs when he returned. Pujols and Jones finish with the place and show.

Cy Young – It has to go to Willis, but the competition was fierce. There are a handful of starters in the NL who are having terrific seasons. This one will be undecided with two weeks to go. Keep an eye on Oswalt - his stuff has been filthy of late.

Rookie of the Year – Willy Taveras leads but Richie Weeks will be heard from.

Manager of the Year – I am not sure he has been awake, but this award always goes to the guy whose team outperforms and nobody has outperformed like Washington. Plus, Robby gets some points for that pine tar incident out in California.

Bust of the Year – Eric Milton – that one is a slam dunk. Other under-performers include Beltran, Lieber, Nomie, and Kolb.

Injury of the Year – Bonds in a landslide, but others worth mentioning include Loretta, Gagne, and Chipper. And yes, I know he started slow, but Nomie’s groin may have cost the Cubs dearly.

Rolaids Man – No contest – Mr. Cordero is a save machine at RFK

Anti-Rolaids Award - Danny Kolb narrowly over Braden Looper.

Super Sub – Tony Clark has been a microwave off the bench in Arizona.

Best UCLA Bruin – no contest – Chase Utley has emerged as a force in Philly.


Washington Nationals – (A+) - It is hard to dispute those pundits who claim the Nationals are the story of the season in the NL at the half-mile point. Nobody in baseball had these guys leading the NL EAST with 75 games to play, yet that is where they sit less then three months to go. The Nats have been fueled by ridiculous bullpen work that has allowed them to win more close games in recent months then anyone else in Washington, including Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) who narrowly escaped defeat last November. Nick Johnson has been terrific, Jose Guillen is making people wonder what happened back in Anaheim and can anyone get to Chad Cordero with the game on the line. Cordero is such a tough closer that if he worked up on the Hill, Congress would never adjourn late. The Nats and Frank Robinson may not hold up and win the division, but they have probably done enough to secure a wild card spot so long as things don’t completely melt down in Washington this summer. Who would have thought back in April that the Nets would be doing better in July then President Bush’s private savings accounts?

Atlanta Braves – (A) - The Atlanta Braves remind me of that old Samonnite Luggage commercial where the gorilla throws around the suit cases all after noon but at the end of the day, the luggage looks good as new. You can do whatever you want to this team but it is pretty clear to me that at the end of the day, Bobby Cox and his crew will survive and make it to October. Can somebody please tell me how this team is eleven games over .500 without Chipper, a closer and three top-line starters? The cupboard to this kitchen is barer than bare, yet the Braves still chug along, grinding out wins with guys like Kelly Johnson, Wilson Betemit, and Jorge Sosa picking up the slack. Andruw Jones is having just a sick year and Smoltz has been a rock, but that shouldn’t have been enough to keep this team alive. But alive they are and with Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton poised to return, things are looking peachy in the Peach State. So peachy, in fact, that this guy thinks the Braves will once again win their division. With that said, another bat would sure help, particularly one who can play first base.

Florida (D+) - The Florida Marlins are just about the most disappointing team in baseball at this juncture, sitting just two games over .500. The big problem – they just can’t score runs. While the D-Train has been stellar, Mike Lowell has been a created less damage at the plate then a stage II hurricane does when it comes ashore on the panhandle. If you put Mike Lowell and Kevin Millar at the corners of an infield, you may not have enough power to light a small building. If Lowell’s problems weren’t enough, Juan Pierre has been thoroughly mediocre all year (heating up a bit of late) and Josh Beckett has had trouble both staying healthy and pitching on the road. Aside from Willis, the bright spot for Florida has once again been Miguel Cabrerra who might some day have a shot to compete for the triple crown if he didn’t have to play his home games at that National Park down in South Florida. You put him in Philly or Cincy and he would be talked about like his last name was Pujols. This team has about two weeks to turn it around – if they are middling around .500 with sixty to go, the bet here is AJ Burnett will find himself in the AL and Jack McKeown will find himself out of a job.

The New York Mets – (C) – What else would you give a team that has bounced around .500 all year, never straying more then four games in one direction or the other? While Pedro has been terrific and Cliff Floyd has been a monster during two big spurts, the rest of the team has been pretty meek. The FTC is investigating whether Carlos Beltran was falsely advertised and even Golden Boy Dave Wright is on pace for not much more then a 20-85 season. The Mets do have some stars, but they have little at second, nothing at first and a finisher in the bullpen that couldn’t find a finish line with a map and a guide-dog. This is a team that needs to think about next year and that means sitting Glavine before his contract vests and determining where Aaron Heilmann fits in on this staff. Can you imagine the stink the players union will make if Glavine is idled or sent to the pen. Mets fans rejoice - just another 75 games with Mike Piazza. Even after he's long gone, I am sure Mets fans will still call into WFAN to bitch about Mr. P.

Philladelphia – (C-) - The Phillies are teetering on the abyss and even that success is only due to an anomalous burst around Memorial Day. This team is much further away from competing then anyone in Philly or the national media would care to admit, as it is stuck with an absolute albatross at first, and a black hole at third. Jim Thome should really think about giving the Phils a discount because if he keeps this up, the DA down there might try to indict Thome for stealing with a non-lethal weapon. David Bell’s offense is not quite as obscene, but if I were the DA, I would hit him with a misdemeanor petty theft charge. Meanwhile, the staff was thin to begin with and it has been absolutely torn to shreds at home. On the bright side, Chase Utley is developing into an offensive force and everyone now knows Bobby A can smack the ball. Nonetheless, at this juncture, the Phils should be active sellers in the coming weeks. They have a jewel in farmhand Ryan Howard, but with Jim Thome ahead of him, they need to find a way to play him or trade him. Further, they should also consider dumping Billy Wagner who is heading into a walk year and is unlikely to be of much service to a fifth place club down the stretch.

St. Louis – (A-) - It is a bit hard to score St. Louis since they have played very well but expectations were very high. On the one hand, its hard to dock the kid who got the highest grade on the test, but what if that kid is widely known to be the smartest kid on the class and the score was a bit below perfect? That is the problem facing St. Louis – a team that clearly excelled, but has had some lapses, especially of late (split @ home with Colorado and losing a series at Cincy). The front of the Cards staff has been great as Chris Carpenter has been an ace and Matt Morris has proven to be one of the best bargains in the league. And while Mark Mulder has been a bit ordinary and Jeff Suppan continues to struggle at home, this staff had as good a first half as any in the major leagues. Albert Pujols has been his usual amazing self, but the big surprise has come from Reggie Sanders, whose bombs have helped offset some of the offense that was lost when Scott Rolen went down. I really think one of the keys to this team staying in the hunt is whether Larry Walker can stay healthy for one last go around. With his bat in the lineup, the Cards have the requisite balance they need, but when he is out, the Cards are a bit too right-handed. As such, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cards go out and get some left-handed insurance to help them down the stretch.

Houston (B-) - Houston is like one of those smart kids who goofed off early in the semester and suddenly realized that it wanted to go to college and needed to get off its ass. They have surged of late behind some excellent pitching and an offense that has shown signs of life, but can they overcome such a huge deficit? My guess is they will not be able to secure that wildcard and when it’s all said and done, the Assholes will be a bit of a disappointment. Cleary, the Astros have had some bright spots, and it all starts with Roger Clemens and the incredible year he is having. But don’t shortchange either Lee Harvey Oswalt or Morgan Ensberg – two guys who are quietly putting together superb years. I know Clemens is having a tremendous year, but check out Lee Harvey’s numbers at Minute Maid – guys are only hitting .211 off him at that little ginger bread stadium. As far as the offense goes, this has been an important year for Houston as they learned Ensberg is a legitimate middle of the order guy and Willy Taveras has a shot of being a decent leadoff guy (.296 with 22 steals). The problem is there isn’t too much behind them. Lance Berkman’s power is down slightly, Jason Lane has been spotty and Chris Burke has shown he isn’t quite ready to take over from Craig Biggio just yet. Speaking of Biggio – the second baseman, who will turn 40 in December, is slugging near .500. Not too bad for a broken down old man.

Chicago: (B-) - This was a solid B ten days ago but the Cubs really limped into the break and therefore they get a late inning deduction. Nonetheless, I have to give them some credit here for not folding when incoming artillery shells began exploding and bodies started dropping. This club basically has Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez and a bunch of conscripts. There is no denying that Lee and Ramirez have been huge, and Burnitz has been helpful at times, but Neifi Perez is coming in hard and Carlee Paterson (.202 on the road) has dropped off the face of Michigan Avenue. Meanwhile, the staff has been ordinary at best and that statement accounts for all the injuries. After all, just because Prior missed some starts doesn’t mean Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux should have pitched as poorly as they have. Zambrano is a real strange case because for some strange reason he walks a ton of lefties and gets hit real hard away from Wrigley. Questions for the second half include: Does Mr. Hamm get back out there and prove April was a fluke? After all, if he doesn’t pull it together, he will be playing for just a couple million bucks next year. Secondly, will Derrick Lee keep this magical season going and up being the first national league triple crown winner since Ducky Medwick? Last, and most importantly, will Kerry Wood be able to warm up in August without tearing up his shoulder once again? If this guy were a window washer, he would spend half his year collecting workman’s compensation.

Milwaukee (B) - How can I give such a grade to a team that is four under .500 at this point in the season? Well, in my humble estimation, the Brewers are doing everything right while laying a solid foundation to compete in 2006 and 2007. They are getting their kids ready and those kids are showing they will be a load come next April. It starts up in the infield where Bill Hall and Richie Weeks both look like they will be potent offensive players. JJ Hardy is not the offensive player that these two are – at least not yet – but his emergence could force Hall to third or Weeks to center. I wouldn’t go so far as to say these three represent an embarrassment of riches, but they are a pretty solid group. Elsewhere, Carlos Lee is having a terrific year and although Brady Clark is almost my age, he is also doing a great job in center for the Brew Crew. And before you jump on this club for having spotty pitching, you should be warned that they are fifth in the NL in ERA. Capuano and Santos are both having solid years and if Sheets can return to his 2004 form and become an ace, this staff is fairly deep. By the way, take a look at Capuano’s splits – he is basically the grim reaper against lefties. If he could somehow figure out a way to keep right-handers in check, he could develop into a big winner. From here on out, the Brewers need to determine what role Prince Fielder will play for the big club come next April. If Fielder proves himself, Lyle Overbay becomes expendable and he will surely bring back value in a trade. The Brewers are a team on the rise and a nice second half could be the springboard they need in order to compete in 2006.

Pittsburgh – (C+) - What you see is what you get. The Bucs have basically traded in line all year. They were a cheap stock to begin the year and they are still pretty cheap. Sure, they had a little run to keep Pirates fan interested, but inter-league play hurt and now they are back on pace for their customary 73 win season. But there is hope and there have been some positive signs over the first half. First Jose Castillo has emerged and he looks like a fixture at second for years to come. Second, Zach Duke looks like the real deal. Unfortunately, that basically covers the positives. Sure, Mark Redman was a nice pickup and Dave Williams has thrown fairly well, but lets not go crazy. Sure, Jason Bay looks like a player, but the rest of that outfield is simply harmless. Can someone please explain to me what Teke Redman’s role on this team is? This guy has an OPS of .720 with only two steals. If you gave Mark Redman all of Teke’s at bats, I think there is a shot he would put up better numbers.

Cincy – (D) - The Reds are just putrid and don’t say they are merely playing down to expectations because nobody expected them to be this bad. That staff, headlined by Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz is an absolute disgrace and the offense seems destined to take out the major league record for strikeouts in a single season. The worst offender in that lineup is Willy Mo Pena who has 58 Ks in 172 plate appearances. With numbers like that, the fans in Cincy should start calling him Willie Mo Belhorn. Adam Dunn isn’t much better with 94 whiffs in 290 at bats but at least Dunn uncorks a three run bomb every so often. Are there teams, other then the Pep Boys, really standing in line to acquire Willie Mo’s services? For that matter, who wants Austin Kearns or Sean Casey? Teams looking at Casey should be warned since he has been just a .400 slugger for three of the past four years. And while he sports a high OBP, he also leads the majors in Double Plays. I’ll pass.

San Diego – (B) Now I expected San Diego to win this division and they have played well considering all their injuries, but truth be told, this lead should be more comfortable. Yes, Peavy and Eaton have thrown well this year, but neither has dominated like they are capable. Peavy, in particular, went into the break with two poor outings and he really hasn’t shown much consistency since Memorial Day. The big upside for San Diego thus far has been the bullpen where guys like Scott Linebrink, Chris Hammond and Rudy Seanz have done a splendid job. While Peavy could have been better, the problems for Los Madres have been on offense where injuries have really taken hold. Losing Mark Loretta early was a killer and there is no one on that bench who could fill Phil nevin’s shoes this month. Brian Giles has quietly pulled his year together, but at the end of the day, this team just doesn’t score many runs. Part of that is the fault of Sean Burroughs, who for some reason has not shown much power since the 1992 Little League World Series. If this squad can get Loretta back and swinging and find a third baseman to take Burroughs slot, they should be able to pull away fairly easily. This may not be a great team, but they should be able to piece together at least 88 wins and that should win the West with a week to go.

Arizona – (B) - The D Backs have begun to slide of late but after last year, anything at this point is gravy. Although they find themselves four under .500, that is well beyond where the D Backs were a year ago and probably a handful of games ahead of where I expected them to be. Had Brandon Lyon not gotten hurt, this team probably would be playing .500 baseball, and that isn’t bad for a team that won just fifty-one games last year. As I have been saying for weeks, the big surprise in Phoenix has been the play of Tony Clark who should get some kind of award for best guy off the bench. This guy is just murdering right-handed pitching, and at the BOB, Clark is money in the bank. Another guy worth noting is Craig Counsell who is quietly having a real solid year, particularly against right-handers. I know Theo reads my stuff and that is why I stuck that in there. Message to Theo – Get Craig Counsell. Meanwhile, Chad Tracy has shown flashes for Arizona while Troy Glaus is proving that the Dbacks probably stretched a bit to bring him to the desert. He’s not a stiff and his power was needed, but Jeff Moorad overpaid for this throwback slugger.

Los Angeles – C – Nothing has gone right for this club since they started off on that ten-day roll. It seems like someone new got hurt everyday.. First it was Jose Valentin. Then it was Bradley. Then Gagne went down and now Drew is hurt. Even Mr. Sunshine – Jeff Kent – tweaked himself last week, proving that even jerks sometimes get hurt. The cruel thing about the Drew injury is JD had actually recovered from a horrible early slump and was playing well of late. As for the staff, Brad Penny has been steady, but Derrick Lowe and Jeff Weaver have done little to earn their huge salaries. The same can be said of Odalis Perez who would be much better off if he never had to throw on the road (His WHIP is twice as high on the road as it is at home). But whom are we kidding? Even if Lowe, Weaver and Perez had outperformed, this offense doesn’t scare anybody and now with Drew out, the drought will continue. After remembering that this team got swept in KC, I am lowering its grade to a C minus.

San Francisco – D – Like the Dodgers, San Francisco has just been decimated by injuries, but what do you expect when your team is the oldest in baseball. I am not going to give Brian Sabean a break on this one. He has been shunning youth for years and it finally caught up to him. This club was put together to win this year and it has crapped out. Sure, you can argue that no team could afford to lose a player like Bonds and losing Benitez was freakish. But these excuses don’t explain everything. That sure doesn’t explain Jason Schmidt’s year. And they sure don’t explain what is going on with guys like Rueter, Lowry, Tomko, Snow and Grissolm. Take a look at Snow’s numbers in particular – Frosty has just 19 RBI and 13 extras in 215 plate appearances. That guy has been as cold as his last name suggests. And if you want to know just how bad things are in SF, all you need to know is Jeff Fassero has the lowest ERA of any pitcher who has started at least three games. For those not familiar with Fassero, it should be noted that he was born ten months before Kennedy was shot and I am talking about John and not Bobby. Pure and simple – this club stinks. There are a ton of old broken down guys with huge contracts and Giants fan should not expect this patient to heal anytime soon.

Colorado – C- I give the Rockies a C because they are no worse then I thought they would be. Hey, how can you say that Colorado disappointed when there were no expectations to begin with. Sure, there have been a couple of bright spots. Jeff Francis is a nice looking kid and Clint Barmes showed he could play before he hurt himself lifting some deer meat. But does it really matter? At the end of the day, this is a horrible organization that plays in a city that has lost interest in this franchise.

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