Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Santana in Sox?

So you want to get a Twins fan exercised? Just go ask him about Johan Sanatana and what the left-hander might fetch in a trade this off-season. This issue gained some attention that other day when Buster Olney penned a piece for ESPN.com and based on his reporting, Buster feels that Santana could net four or five players, presumably a couple already big-league tested and a couple top prospects. Well, this seems a bit rich to me but it got me thinking about my Sox and what they could do to snag Johan.

So what about this proposition: Coco Crisp, Jon Lester and Kevin Youkilis. In Coco Crisp, the Twins would be getting a great defensive center-fielder to replace Tori Hunter when he walks after the season. Now Crisp’s numbers have hardly been scintillating in Boston but he is hitting .273, he will wind up with 25 steals and his OBP since the break is .370. He has the makings of a decent leadoff guy and he is under contract thru 2010 at relatively reasonable prices – about 10.5M over the next two years and an 8M option for 2010. The Twins could do much worse than to replace Hunter with Crisp.

With Lester, the Twins would be getting a 23 year-old lefty who has shown glimpses but probably has a ceiling that is lower than previously thought. It’s a bit hard to tell what to make of Lester since he was pitching with cancer last year but he is still pretty well-regarded throughout baseball and he is under control for five more years.

In Youkilis, the Twins would finally be filling a hole at third base that has been a black hole since Corey Koskie hit lotto in 2001. The Twins have tried guys like Brent Gates, Nick Punto and Tony Batista over there and I am sure they would love to have a little more production from that position. Now I am not a huge fan of Youkilis, but he can catch, he can hit .280 with perhaps a slight upwards bias, and he has fifteen home run power. Plus, he is still three years away from free-agency.

So if the Twins made this deal, they would go into 08 with Crisp in center, Youkilis at third, Mauer behind the dish, Cuddy in right, Morneau at first, maybe Kubel in left, Bartlett at short and maybe Casilla at second. The staff would be composed of Garza, Lester, Slowey, Bonser, Baker and perhaps Francisco Liriano. Plus, assuming they don’t plan on materially increasing their payroll, they still would have some of Hunter’s 12M dollars and all of Johan’s 10M dollars to sprinkle around on Morneau, a platoon type in left, a second baseman and/or a DH. Granted, Youkilis and Crisp will eat up some of this money but there should be some money there for the Twins to bring in a few mid-priced free agents. I don't think that is all that bad a team. In fact, if Liriano comes back, I think it could be better than this year's team.

While the above lineup might not sound like a championship club, what is the alternative? Short of dealing Santana, the Twins will go into 08 with a huge hole at third, a huge hole in center, a problem at second, a ballooning contract at first, a closer coming up on free agency and just Hunter’s 12M to pay for it all? Yes Santana is great, but the Twins have to find a way to fill some of these gaps and I don't see it happening without them trading Johan or boosting the payroll by ten million dollars (from 70 to 80). Seemingly, the answers do not lie within as the Twins system is hardly stocked with everyday regulars who are ready to step up. In that vein, doesn’t the Sox deal seem attractive?

My gut tells me Twins fans don’t see it this way. They think that the Twins could recover much more talent for the best left-hander in baseball. I’m not so sure that is the case despite what Buster may think. I mean, do you think the Yankees will give up Melky and Chamberlin for Santana? What about the Angles? Do you think Bill Stoneman will ever part with anything? And the Mets? Would they be willing to deal Milledge and a couple pitching prospects, assuming they exist, for Johan? I think the Mets might be the Twins best hope although I am not sure a Mets package will be much better that the Sox package I proposed earlier.

Perhaps the best thing for the Twins to do is just suck it up and go for it next year. Boost the short-term payroll, sign Kenny Lofton to play center, pick up Mark Lorreta to play second, give Justin his money and hope Nick Punto can hold down third until the trade deadline. Oh yeah, pray Liriano comes back and throws bullets. I am of the mind that the Twins are unlikely to do too much better than what I proposed and if that’s not enough, they might as well just go the 1997 Florida route, boost the short-term payroll and shoot for the moon in 08.

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