March 31 - Baseball's Back - (Divisional Preview)

It seems like only yesterday Joe Buck was screaming: “Back to Foulke! Red Sox fans have longed to hear it - the Boston Red Sox are World Champions!” Well, that extraordinary moment happened more then five months ago, and while Buck’s words and that championship will always be with me, its time to turn our attention to the season ahead. And what a season it promises to be. After an off-season highlighted by a tremendous amount of high-profile player movement, I am primed to get this thing cranked up. Hey, I love discussing Barry Bonds and all his problems, but its time to get back to basics. So no more talking about A-Rod running down to first with his purse flapping in the wind or what a jerk Sammy Sosa was in Chicago. Let’s focus guys! I want to talk about the Sox and Yanks. I want to talk about Smoltzie firing away as a starter. I want to discuss Pedro and Huddy and Mulder pitching away in their new digs. In fact, I have so much fucking stuff to discuss; it will take weeks before I have to scrap for new material. With that said, I am going to try and keep it concise today and focus my comments on how I see the divisions shaping up. So here are my picks:


AL EAST: 1) New York, 2) Boston, 3) Baltimore, 4) Toronto, 5) Tampa
AL CENT 1) Minnesota, 2) Cleveland, 3) Detroit, 4) Chicago, 5) KC
AL WEST 1) California, 2) Seattle, 3) Texas, 4) Oakland
Wild Card - Boston
MVP – Manny Ramirez – Manny has to win this thing one of these years
Cy Young – Johan Santana wins by three lengths.
ROY – Jeremy Reed will emerge as another Mark Kotsay

NL EAST 1) Florida, 2) Atlanta, 3) Mets, 4) Philly 5) Washington
NL CENT 1) Cards 2) Cubs 3) Cinci, 4) Houston, 5) Pitt, 6) Milwaukee
NL WEST 1) San Diego, 2) LA, 3) SF, 4) Arizona, 5) Colorado
Wild Card – Atlanta
MVP Albert Pujols takes this in a squeaker over Angel Cabrera
Cy Young – Pedro (18.6 with a 2.92 ERA) will pull ahead in Sept when Tim Hudson misses two starts.
ROY - Garrett Atkins, because he is a Bruin and I am not sure if David Wright is eligible.

ALCS – Boston over NY in the rubber match – this one ends in six
NLCS – Florida over San Diego – Peavy wins two but Padres lose in six
WS – Boston over Florida - If the Pats can win 3 in 4 years, the Sox can repeat.


Let’s start in the NL East where I am finally ready to predict that the Atlanta Braves dynasty will begin to crack. I don’t foresee a full blown collapse, as evidenced by the fact that I see the Bravos winning the NL wild card, but this will be the year that General Cox finally comes up short in his quest for division supremacy. The Braves come into this season with just too many holes. I know people say that every year, but look at this lineup. Hell, I love Marcus Giles, Chipper and Estrada, but how far can you go with Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi as your corner outfielders? Huddy at the head of the rotation is a big improvement and Smoltz stands a good shot of having a 16-18 win season, but the back half of that rotation is spotty at best and closer Danny "soft stuff" Kolb is little more than a journeyman in my eyes. The Braves have enough talent to win 90 games, but that will not be enough to topple the Marlins who I think have a shot at 95 wins this year. To get to that spot, the Marlins need Josh Beckett and A.J Burnett to stay healthy and pitch up to their ability. This is a big question mark considering their injury-plagued pasts, but both have great ability and I think it is safe to assume that one, if not both, have breakthrough years. For Beckett, that would mean 20 wins and for Burnett, who is in a contract year, I am looking at something closer to 16. The other key for Florida is in the bullpen where former set-up man Guilermo Mota must prove he can close games. This guy has never had trouble getting guys out, but we will have to see whether he can do it ninth inning with a one run lead. As for the lineup, Florida is jacked. Throwing Delgado in with Cabrerra, Lowell, La Ducal and Pierre is a recipe for success so I don’t see this team having too much trouble scoring runs. As for the rest of the division, I think the Mets will be greatly improved, largely because of Pedro’s arrival. This is the way I look at the Mets. Pedro will be 12 games over .500 while the rest of the team will play breakeven baseball. The bullpen is horrific and it will end up costing some games, but the Mets can win somewhere in the neighborhood of 85-87 games so long as they can stay relatively healthy. The situation is not as rosy in Philadelphia where I have little faith in the pitching staff and I think the cracks we began to see with Billy Wagner last year could begin to snowball. Bounce back years from Pat Burrell and Vincent Padilla would help, but there are a bunch of holes in the lineup including Kenny Lofton in center and Jimmy Rollins at short. Ed Wade has done a terrible job building this team - too many Ks in the lineup and too few on the mound – and he could lose his job by mid-year. Lastly, things in Washington should be much improved over what they were in Montreal, but probably not enough to get the Nats out of the cellar. The infield isn’t bad, but any rotation that relies on Esteban Loaiza is spotty at best. GM Jim Bowden spent some money on this team in the off-season, but unfortunately for Washington D.C. residents, he didn’t spend it all that well.

The NL central should be there for the Cards picking. I know they disgraced the league in the World Series, but they ran away with this division last year and there is no reason to think they will be aggressively challenged this year. In Pujols, they have best player in the league other than the perjurer, and Mulder should be able to steady that staff. I am not really a fan of either Edmonds or Rolen since both are outs against top line pitchers, but they hang good numbers and can be counted on to drill bad pitching. Losing Renteria will hurt, but he was a bit overrated to begin with so that loss can be overcome. Come to think of it, I don’t really love this team too much, but given the competition, they should win this division by five games. Their closest competition will probably come from rival Chicago, which has some upside if Kerry Wood and Mark Prior can each start 30 games. With those guys, the Cubs have the best pitching in the league, but I have given up on Kerry Wood and Prior is a question mark as well. Meanwhile, the Cubs lineup is a bit hard to figure out. On one hand, you have Nomar poised for nice bounce back and the always solid Aramis Ramirez. That duo, along with Todd Walker, isn’t a bad core, but you also have Corey Patterson and Jeremy Burnitz who are collectively good for at LEAST 300 strikeouts. Moreover, Todd Hollandsworth should be pinch hitting and not playing everyday in left. Lastly, the Cubs bullpen is a disgrace and that will probably cost them five more games than the league average. Moving along, the Reds should be fun to watch, especially when Eric Milton pitches in that cozy park. That guy gave up 40 plus bombs last year and fifty isn’t out of the question this year. The Reds will score some runs, but the pitching is just not there to support a 90 win season. Pundits will argue that is not the case in Houston, where the Astros are expecting to have one of the best staffs in baseball. I have no faith in this premise whatsoever. Roger Clemens is 42 and coming off a horrible spring. I have been ready for the Clemens ship to sink since he was knocked out of the 2003 ALCS, and this is the year it will happen, As such, I am predicting no more than 13 wins for the Rocket. The Astros do have Roy Oswalt ready to step up and take Roger’s place, but can they count on Andy Pettitte? I have never been a fan of Pettitte and I doubt he does a whole lot with Houston’s meager offense behind him. Speaking of that offense, it is entirely right-handed and with Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell at the end of the line and Lance Berkman coming off an injury, this team simply will not score too many runs, at least not outside of crackerjack Minute Maid Park. This is one of the more overrated teams in baseball, largely by those who have always wanted to hop into a ménage with Roger and Andy. Rounding out the division: Pittsburgh has a nice young nucleus, but they are at least a year away. And Milwaukee will never have a shot so long as they aren’t owned by someone who is willing to absorb huge financial losses.

Out West, I am picking San Diego, primarily because I love their middle infielders and Jake Peavy has huge upside. I predict he wins twenty games this year and gives Pedro and Jason Schmidt a run for the Cy Young. The Padres will need a big year out of either Phil Nevin of Brian Giles to win this division, but I like the makeup of this team. Mark Loretta is one of the games top second baseman and the Pads have a terrific bullpen. I think it will be enough to scratch out a title over San Francisco. The obvious question in San Francisco is how much Barry Bonds will play. We know he is out until May 1. So let’s call that 25 games. Plus, he is good for another 15 off-nights a year. Can the Gyros win with Barry in the lineup for at most 120 games? I think it is debatable and that is a best case scenario. If I had to guess, I would say Bonds plays less then 100 games this year and there is no way that this team can overcome that loss. I have heard a few pundits try to argue that the Giants have enough depth to overcome Bonds absence, but this is just foolish optimism. Case in point – does anyone think Moises Alou is a suitable replacement for Barry Bonds? Alou hasn’t done anything away from Wrigley in two years so why should we expect him to do anything at SBC? Without Bonds, this lineup is in the bottom third of all of baseball and the pitching is nothing to write home about. Lowry and Tomko were big down the stretch, but can they be relied upon once again? The Giants do have the exceptional Jason Schmidt to anchor the staff and Benitez will help a bullpen that was amongst the worst in baseball last year, but this team cannot get it done without Barry and his cream. Sorry Russo, your window is closing. Turning south, the Dodgers had probably the worst off-season in baseball and there is no reason to think they will be anything more than a .500 team. Not only will Dodgers fans have the treat this year of watching Derrick Lowe meltdown on the mound, but they also will no have the privilege of hearing ex-yank broadcaster Charlie Steiner call some games. I don’t know which is worse, but it is safe to say, neither is pretty. In Arizona, things may be a bit better with Troy Glass mauling pitchers, but Russ Ortiz was the worst signing of the off-season and it goes without saying that neither he nor Javier Vasquez is a suitable substitute for Randy Johnson. The staff is still weak and this team will struggle to win 70 games. Colorado is the most irrelevant team in baseball so we will skip them for now.

In the AL West, I predict the Angels will cruise. They have that enormous outfield, and even though there are some holes at second and third, the Angels will be able to score plenty of runs. Vlad, Garrett and Finley should be good for 100-110 home runs and that should be enough to turbo-charge this offense. Also, Cabrera is an upgrade at short and Paul Byrd could be a nice addition to the staff. This team should have little trouble winning the division, but its post-season hopes will ride on Barolo Colon. He showed up last year weighing close to 280 pounds and as a result, he never got it going. The Angels need Colon to be an ace if they have any hope of winning a post-season series. Up in SeaTac, I think the Ms will be much improved this season which isn’t saying much considering how abysmal they were a year ago. Mike Hargrove’s lineup should be dangerous with Ichiro and Adrian Beltre and things could get interesting up north if Jeremy Reed is as good as advertised in center. Plus, Raul Ibanez had a great spring and he could be due for a nice comeback year. When it comes to pitching, the picture is not quite as bright although I like young lefty Bobby Mardritsch. He could easily be this year’s Jake Peavy. Aside from Mardritsch, the Ms are pretty short from the rubber although Pinero and Meche may be good enough to win with this loaded lineup supplying runs. I don’t see Seattle winning 90 games, but 85-87 is a possibility. In Texas, things remain largely unchanged from a year ago. The Rangers should score a pile of runs with Mark Texeira and Hank Blaylock leading the way, but pitching is a huge question mark. Last year the Rangers got by with decent starting pitching and great bullpen work. But I feel the starters last year - guys like Ryan Drese and Kenny Rogers - pitched over their heads and I don’t think it is logical to assume that will continue. I say the starters revert to the mean and Texas pulls back to .500 as a result. Lastly, we get to Oakland where Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder are no longer holding down the fort. The As will have a better lineup this year with the addition of Jason Kendell, the emergence of Bobby Crosby (assuming he is healthy) and the return of Mark Ellis, but it won’t be enough to support this young staff, especially if Atlanta import Dan Meyer is not as good as advertised.

In the central, many pundits are going crazy over the Twins and some are even predicting a Minnesota pennant this year. I will concede the Twins look good to win their fourth consecutive division flag, but let’s not go crazy. It’s hard to not love Johan Santana at the head of this staff, but the balance is just a bit better than mediocre. I am not a huge Radke guy and Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse don’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of hitters. It seems the reason some are particularly high on the Twins is an expectation that Joe Mauer will be a terror this year. That seems like a bit of a stretch to me although he did have a great spring and it’s conceivable he will add some juice to that pretty staid lineup. But even if Mauer is a .300 hitter with 25 dongs, how far can this team go with guys like Torii Hunter, Lew Ford and Shannon Stewart? These guys are all nice players, but are they good enough to compete with the big boys in the East? I don’t think so, but I do think the Twins have more then enough firepower to win 95 games and handle anyone in the Central. The Twins biggest rival will probably come from Cleveland, a team which is probably still a year away. The Indians have a great young nucleus and they will score a ton of runs, but I am not sure they have enough pitching to mount a serious challenge. They only won 80 games a year ago, but that was with the worst bullpen in baseball. If they can take that up from an F to a C minus, they will automatically pick up five games in the standings. That should be no sweat. I’ll then throw them 3 more games because Hafner, Broussard and Martinez are a year older. That gives them about 88 wins on the year which will give them second in this woeful division. I have Detroit in third, although I think the Tigers are going to be interesting this year and they could threaten for second place. Everyone thinks Jason Bonderman is going to have a huge year and even if he is only 80 percent as good as advertised, the Tigers will finally have someone to lead that staff. The Tigers bit the bullet a couple years back and let some young pitchers like Bonderman and Maroth gain some valuable experience. That decision should start paying dividends this year. Plus, it looks like Maglio Ordonez may be healthy enough to hit 25-30 bombs for this club and with Pudge and Carlos Guillen chipping in, the Tigers have some ability to sting. The White Sox will be a basket case once again, but that is what we have come to expect on the South side of Chicago. The Chisox tried to revamp over the winter to become more aggressive and speed-oriented, but it won’t help. The staff is real thin after Freddy Garcia and Mark Buehrle and there are holes all over the lineup. This could be a sub-70 win team. Nonetheless, I think they will remain above Kansas City which is laden with crap. The Royals have some good young prospects (Mark Teehan), but they have nobody to throw the ball and they should be mathematically eliminated sometime around my July 17th birthday.

Finally we get to the AL East, where I am picking the Yankees to win the division title over my beloved Red Sox, just as they have done for the last seven or eight years. The Yanks are simply built to crush people during the regular season. The lineup is stacked and even though there are some question marks with the staff, this team will have no problem winning 100 games. I think 108 is more like it. Matsui is poised to have a huge season in his contract year and AROD cannot be nearly as mediocre as he was last year. There is probably some downside in Sheffield, but all in all, the Yanks have a shot at scoring 900 runs this year. That should be plenty for a staff that now has the Big Unit leading off. But that is not to say this team doesn’t have questions and question number one is Mariano Rivera. Mariano is clearly the most important guy on this team and he showed signs of mortality last year. The Sox got to him when it really mattered and he showed up this spring a little gimpy. If his slide has truly begun, the Yanks have an issue that cannot be addressed, and certainly not with post-season bed-wetters like Tom Gordon or Felix Rodriguez. Also, keep an eye on Mike Mussina. He was pretty solid in the post-season but he has thrown 3000 major league innings. and that usually is a breaking point He had a terrible 2004 and he could be on a slippery slope as well. Meanwhile up in Boston, I think the Sox have a good shot at 100 wins but it won’t matter. As much as it pains me to say, they will not beat the Yanks in the regular season. Nonetheless, I think the Sox have improved over last year even though they lost Pedro Martinez to the Mets. Losing Lowe was addition by subtraction, at least as far as the regular season goes, and getting Renteria is an upgrade. Plus, Trot Nixon is ready to go from day one this year and that is a huge boost for a lineup that scored 949 runs a year ago. It’s conceivable this year’s team could put up 950. As for the pitching, there are definitely some question marks. Will Wade Miller be ready, and if so, when? Can Dave Wells hold up? Can Jason Varitek harness Matt Clement’s considerable talent and keep the kid’s walks down? There are question marks, but as long as one or two cut right, the Sox will have a more than suitable staff. Beyond these two superpowers, Baltimore is the class of the division and I think they will be much better than people assume. The birds have a stacked lineup headed by Tejada and Mora, and Sosa’s addition will add some pop. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sosa have a massive year in comfy Camden. Forty-five bombs is not out of the question if given 500 at bats. Further, I think the O’s pitching will be better than expected. Eric Beddard, Rogerio Lopez and Dan Cabrera are passable given all the offense that sits behind them. Ponson is a bum, but BJ Ryan may be the best left-handed reliever in baseball. As such, this team will be more dangerous than many assume. The same cannot be said for either the Jays or the Devil Rays. Each will be lucky to win more then 5 of 19 against the Sox or Yanks.